Tuesday, July 13, 2010

Miss Williams Confounds Us as Rationalists

I have been reading Less Wrong

There were 128 competitors in the 2010 Wimbledon Ladies' Singles, thus 127 matches.

Of the 127 matches, 27 were 2-1, and the rest were 2-0.

Venus Williams won 4 matches in straight sets before being knocked out in straight sets by Tsevtana Pironkova.

So she's 4/100ths of the winners in straight sets

She's 4/127ths of the winners.

She's 1/100ths of the losers in straight sets

She's 1/127th of the losers

She's 0/27 of the winners or losers by 2-1

I want to say that this makes her more likely to win in straight sets than to win.
And more likely to lose in straight sets than to lose.

I must not say this.
I must not say this.
I must not say this.

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